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India's Best Stock Broker: COMMODITIES: CRUDE OIL : Oil futures fell as concerns on Europe's demand for the commodity rose with Greece failing to reach an agreement with its...

COMMODITIES

CRUDE OIL: Oil futures fell as concerns on Europe's demand for the commodity rose with Greece failing to reach an agreement with its European lenders on Thursday. This increased the chances of a potential Greece debt default to the IMF. Concerns over a supply glut emerging in the refined products segment lingered a day after the release of US reports that showed inventories of gasoline to have increased unexpectedly by 680,000 in the week ended Jun 19.
--NYMEX Aug futures (a barrel): $59.70 Thursday vs $60.27 Wednesday

GOLD: Gold futures fell for the fifth straight session on the outlook
that the US dollar will strengthen in the days to come. Upbeat data from the US supported expectations of a hike in US interest
rates in September. Further, market players analysed the Greece debt situation with the cash-strapped country failing to reach an agreement with its lenders on Thursday. Concerns arose that if Greece failed to secure financial aid by midnight Jun 30 then it may default on its debt repayment to the IMF. This pointed at further dollar strengthening.
--COMEX Aug futures (a troy ounce): $1,171.80 Thursday vs $1,172.90 Wednesday.

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Market

Call : Seen opening slightly above RBI's repo rate on likely demand to meet mandatory reserve needs. 1-day Call. 7.60% vs 6.65-6.75% Tue.

Bonds : May track oil, US yields at open. May take cues from new 2023 bond in when issued trade.10-year bond yield: 7.76-7.81% vs 7.77% Tue.

Rupee : Seen steady to tad down. May eye Asian units, euro. Exporters' dollar sales may continue. Range: 62.6500-63.0500/$1 vs 62.85/$1 Tue.

Stocks: Seen falling further on concerns over MAT, passage of land bill Nifty range: 8300-8450, Tuesday-end: 8377.75, down 70.35 points.

CURRENCIES

EUR/USD: The euro was trading lower against the US dollar as market participants grew increasingly risk averse due to Greek debt default concerns. However, the euro derived some support from media reports that said Greece may have reached an agreement with its creditors regarding its debt settlement.

--$1.0728 per euro today vs $1.0737 Tuesday; $1.0738 Monday

USD/JPY: The Japanese yen was trading marginally higher against the US dollar on the back of robust trade data, which showed the economy posted its first trade surplus in three years.

--119.66 yen per $1 today vs 119.68 Tuesday; 119.24 Monday

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CURRENCIES
EUR/USD: The euro recovered marginally after slipping to a fresh 12-year low against the US dollar, as market participants waited for cues from the US Federal Open Market Committee's two-day policy meet that begins Tuesday.
--$1.0525 per euro today vs $1.0500 Friday; $1.0624 Thursday

USD/JPY: The yen was trading with an upward bias against the US dollar ahead of the FOMC's two-day policy meet, where the US central bank is expected to provide more information on the hiking of interest rates.
--121.25 yen per $1 today vs 121.33 Friday; 121.29 Thursday

COMMODITIES
CRUDE OIL: Futures fell sharply Friday, as a monthly report from the International Energy Agency warned that oversupply would continue to push prices downward.  Crude oil prices have been pinned at record lows for several months now as there has been a global supply glut. The global strengthening of the dollar also contributed to the sharp decline in crude futures on Friday.
--NYMEX Apr futures (a barrel): $44.84 Friday vs $47.05 Thursday
 
GOLD: Futures settled marginally higher on Friday, but ended the week registering a 1% loss as the global strengthening of the dollar reduced appetite for the precious metal.
--COMEX Apr futures (a troy ounce): $1,152.40 Friday vs $1,151.90 Thursday

MARKETS
Call : Seen opening tad above RBI repo rate as banks may borrow funds early to meet reserve needs. 1-day call: 7.00-7.50% vs 8.48% 2-day Sat.
Bonds : Crude oil price, US yield may lend cues. Value buying may support prices. 10-yr bond yield: 7.75-7.80% vs 7.80% Fri.
Rupee : Steady to tad up on upbeat trade deficit data. May take cues from euro, NDF, Asian currencies. Range 62.7500-63.1500/$1 vs 62.9650/$1 Fri.
Stocks: Seen weak tracking negative global cues. Nifty range: 8600-8780 Fri-end: 8647.75, down 128.25 points.

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RBI COUNTER

* DAILY LAF TENDERS: One set of 1-day reverse repo (at 6.75%) and 1-day repo (at 7.75%). Bids for repo tender may be submitted between 0930 IST and 1030 IST, and reverse repo between 1900 IST and 1930 IST.

* TERM REPO TENDER: One set of 14-day variable rate term repo for 155 bln rupees. Bids may be submitted between 1100 and 1130 IST.

* STATE DEVELOPMENT LOAN AUCTION: RBI to hold auction of 116.20 bln rupees worth of bonds issued by 13 states--Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Meghalaya, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh.

MARKETS

Call  : Seen opening 10-15 bps above RBI's repo rate on demand from banks to meet reserve needs. 1-day call. 7.85-7.90% vs 7.00-7.20% Mon.

Bonds : May track US Treasury yields, crude oil prices Tue. Mild value buying may support prices: 10-yr bond yield 7.69-7.74% vs 7.72% Monday.

Rupee : Seen steady to tad up on positive India Oct-Dec GDP data. Delhi poll results eyed intraday. Range: 61.9000-62.3000/$1 vs 62.1650 Mon.

Stocks: Seen choppy with negative bias; Delhi poll outcome eyed. Nifty range: 8450-8600, Monday-end: 8526.35, down 134.70 points.

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RBI COUNTER

* DAILY LAF TENDERS: One set of 3-day reverse repo (at 6.75%) and 3-day repo (at 7.75%). Bids for repo tender may be submitted between 0930 IST and 1030 IST, and reverse repo between 1900 IST and 1930 IST.

* TERM REPO TENDER: One set of 14-day variable rate term repo for 195 bln rupees. Bids may be submitted between 1100 and 1130 IST

* GILT AUCTIONS: RBI to auction 20 bln rupees of the 8.27%, 2020 bond, 50 bln rupees of the 8.15%, 2026 bond, 30 bln rupees of the 8.24%, 2033 bond and 30 bln rupees of the 8.17%, 2044 bond.

MARKETS

Call  : Open 20-30 bps above repo rate. Banks to borrow for weekend reserves, indirect tax outflows. 3-day call: 7.95-8.05 vs 8.60-8.70 1-day Thu.

Bonds : May open taking cues from oil prices, US yields. May remain steady, on caution before auction. 10-yr bond yield: 7.68-7.73% vs 7.70% Thu.

Rupee : Seen up as banks may sell dollars on hopes of FII inflows. To eye movement of dollar vs other units. Range: 61.55-61.80/$1 vs 61.73 Thu.

Stocks: Seen down on continued weakness in metal, PSU bank shares Nifty range: 8650-8800, Thursday-end: 8711.70, down 12 points.

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MARKETS
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Call : Seen opening slightly above the repo rate on demand from banks to meet reserve needs. 1-day Call. 7.85% vs 6.75-6.80% Mon.

Bonds : May take cues from crude prices, US yield. Players may avoid big bets before RBI policy. 10-year bond yield: 7.63-7.67% vs 7.65% Monday.

Rupee : Steady as banks may avoid big dlr positions ahead of RBI policy. To track local shares intraday. Range: 61.60-61.95/$1 vs 61.79 Mon.

Stocks: May open flat to slightly up; RBI monetary policy eyed Nifty range: 8750-8850, Monday-end: 8797.40, down 11.50 points.

RBI COUNTER
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* DAILY LAF TENDERS: One set of 1-day reverse repo (at 6.75%) and 1-day repo (at 7.75%). Bids for repo tender may be submitted between 0930 IST and 1030 IST, and reverse repo between 1900 IST and 1930 IST.

* TERM REPO TENDER: One set of 13-day variable rate term repo for 150 bln rupees. Bids may be submitted between 1100 and 1130 IST.

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RBI COUNTER
* DAILY LAF TENDERS: One set of 1-day reverse repo (at 6.75%) and 1-day repo (at 7.75%). Bids for repo tender may be submitted between 0930 IST and 1030 IST, and reverse repo between 1900 IST and 1930 IST.

MARKETS
Call : May open up as banks may borrow funds early in the session to cover their reserve needs. 1-day call: 7.00-8.00% vs 5.00% 2-day Sat.
Bonds : Crude, US yields to lend cues. Players may stay off big bets before RBI policy. 10-yr bond yield: 7.67-7.72% vs 7.69% Fri.
Rupee : To take cues from US GDP data. Local shares to lend cues. Range: 61.60-62.00/$1 vs 61.86 Fri.
Stocks: Seen opening down amid mixed cues from global markets Nifty range: 8700-8850, Friday-end: 8808.90, down 143.45 points.

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CONFERENCES 

* PENSION SYSTEM: Minister of State for Finance Sinha, Expenditure Secretary Watal and Financial Services Secretary Adhia to inaugurate conference on National Pension System Implementation in central government sector. 0945 IST, New Delhi.

* COMPETITION POLICY: Minister of State for Finance Sinha, former finance minister Sinha and National Statistical Commission Chairman Sen to be present at CUTS roundtable discussion on 'Adoption of National Competition Policy to achieve double digit growth in India'. 1430 IST, New Delhi.

* BANKING CONCLAVE: RBI Deputy Governor S.S. Mundra to speak at annual banking conclave organised by Mint. 1830 IST, Mumbai.

RBI COUNTER

* DAILY LAF TENDERS: One set of 1-day reverse repo (at 6.75%) and 1-day repo (at 7.75%). Bids for repo tender may be submitted between 0930 IST and 1030 IST, and reverse repo between 1900 IST and 1930 IST.

MARKETS

Call  : May open tad above repo rate. Intraday rates may slip as bks already borrowed at Wed's 2-day repo tender. 1-day call: 7.80% vs 6.80% Wed.

Bonds : May track outcome of US FOMC meet. Players may stay off big bets before auction Friday. 10-yr bond yld: 7.67-7.73% vs 7.70% Wednesday.

Rupee : To take opening cues from US FOMC statement. Local shrs to lend cues. Range: 61.20-61.60/$1 vs 61.41 Wed.

Stocks: Seen volatile ahead of Jan futures expiry; Coal India to be in focus. Nifty range: 8850 and 8975, Wednesday-end: 8914.30, up 3.8 points.

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COMMODITIES
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CRUDE OIL: Futures settled lower on Monday following the Syriza party's victory in Greece on Sunday amid choppy trade. Comments from Abdalla el-Badri, the secretary-general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, initially aided prices. Abdalla el-Badri said that crude oil prices could rise to $200/bbl if no new investments were made on the supply-side.

--NYMEX Mar futures (a barrel): $45.15 Monday vs $45.59 Friday

GOLD: Futures slid Monday on profit sales and uncertainty following the outcome of the Greek elections. A rebound in the euro from 11-year lows, after newly-elected Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said that he intended to keep the Mediterranean country a part of the common currency region, also reduced demand for the precious metal.

--COMEX Feb futures (a troy ounce): $1,279.40 Monday vs $1,292.60 Friday.

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RBI COUNTER

* DAILY LAF TENDERS: One set of 1-day reverse repo (at 6.75%) and 1-day repo 7.75%). Bids for repo tender may be submitted between 0930 IST and IST, and reverse repo between 1900 IST and 1930 IST.

* TERM REPO TENDER: One set of 14-day variable rate term repo for 155 bln. Bids may be submitted between 1100 and 1130 IST.

* STATE DEVELOPMENT LOAN AUCTION: RBI to hold auction of 181.50 bln rupees worth of bonds issued by 17 states--Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Manipur, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal.

MARKETS

Call  : Seen opening above repo rate on demand from banks to meet mandatory reserve requirements. 1-day call: 8.00-8.10% vs 7.85% 4-day Friday.

Bonds : May take cue from crude prices, US yield. Players may avoid big bets before FOMC outcome. 10-year bond yield: 7.68-7.63% vs 7.70% Friday.

Rupee : Seen steady. FII inflows likely to continue. Importer dollar buys to weigh. Range: 61.25-61.60/$1 vs 61.42/$1 Friday.

Stocks: Seen rangebound with a positive bias; caution likely ahead of US FOMC meet. Nifty range: 8600-8900, Friday-end: 8835.60, up 74.20 points.

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RBI COUNTER

* DAILY LAF TENDERS: One set of 1-day reverse repo (at 6.75%) and 1-day repo (at 7.75%). Bids for repo tender may be submitted between 0930 IST and 1030 IST, and reverse repo between 1900 IST and 1930 IST.

MARKETS

Call  : Seen opening above repo rate on demand from banks to meet mandatory reserve requirements. 1-day call: 8.00% vs 7.75-7.80% Wednesday.

Bonds : Seen steady as players may stay off big bets ahead of auction Fri. Rate cut view may support. 10-yr bond yld: 7.68-7.74% vs 7.69% Wednesday.

Rupee : To open up as foreign banks may sell dlrs for FIIs. Dlr buys by PSU banks to limit sharp rise. Range: 61.5000-61.8000/$1 vs 61.6350/$1 Wed.

Stocks: Seen opening marginally up. ECB meet outcome eyed. Nifty range: 8650-8780, Wednesday-end: 8729.50, up 33.90 points.

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MARKETS

Call  : Seen opening above repo rate on demand from banks to meet mandatory requirements. 1-day call: 8.00-8.10% vs 7.75-8.00% Monday.

Bonds : To take opening cues from crude price, US treasury yields. Value-buying may support prices. 10-year bond yield: 7.69-7.73% vs 7.72% Monday.

Rupee : To open up as banks may sell dollars anticipating FII inflows. Asian, NDF rates, eyed. Range: 61.4500-61.9000/$1 vs 61.7100/$1 Monday.

Stocks: Seen moving in a narrow range; Oct-Dec earnings eyed. range: 8480-8580, Monday-end: 8550.70, up 36.90 points.

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CURRENCIES, STOCKS, COMMODITIES..

CURRENCIES
EUR/USD: The euro was slightly lower against the dollar on expectations the European Central Bank may announce the quantitative easing programme at its Jan 22 meet.
--$1.1776 per euro today vs $1.1789 Wednesday; $1.1772 Tuesday
USD/JPY: The yen weakened against the dollar as gains in Japanese equity markets reduced demand for the safe-haven currency.
--117.79 yen per $1 today vs 117.32 Wednesday; 117.90 Tuesday

US TREASURIES
Yields fell to their lowest levels since May 1, 2013 after a disappointing retail sales data in the US increased safe-haven demand as also raised speculation the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates at a slower-than-expected pace.
--10-year bond yield: 1.85% Wednesday vs 1.89% Tuesday

STOCKS
* INDIA
--Nikkei 225: 16,970.05 today, up 174.09 points or 1.04% vs Wednesday
--S&P ASX 200: 5,318.50 today, down 35.10 points or 0.66% vs Wednesday
* Europe
--EURO STOXX: 3,089.67 Wednesday, down 44.19 points or 1.41% vs Tuesday
--FTSE 100: 6,388.46 Wednesday, down 153.74 points or 2.35% vs Tuesday
* US
--DJIA: 17,427.09 Wednesday, down 186.59 points or 1.06% vs Tuesday
--S&P 500: 2,011.27 Wednesday, down 11.76 points or 0.58% vs Tuesday

COMMODITIES
* CRUDE OIL: Prices gained Wednesday, reversing their three-day losing streak, even as weekly inventories in the US rose. This was the highest one-day gain in prices since June 2012.
--NYMEX Feb futures (a barrel): $48.48 Wednesday vs $45.89 Tuesday
* GOLD: Futures ended mostly unchanged amid global growth concerns and weak US retail sales data.
--COMEX Feb futures (a troy ounce): $1,234.50 Wednesday vs $1,234.40 Tuesday

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MEDIA & MARKET

MEDIA PICKS

* Modi promises to make India easiest place to do business.

* Delhi-bound train being searched for bomb in MP.

* Witness in Asaram Bapu's Surat rape case shot dead.

* Tharoor in Delhi; Cops may quiz him this week in Sunanda Pushkar case.

* BJP eyes three-fourths majority in Bihar.

* J&K to have stable government soon: BJP.

RBI COUNTER

* DAILY LAF TENDERS: One set of 1-day reverse repo (at 7.00%) and 1-day repo (at 8.00%). Bids for repo tender may be submitted between 0930 IST and 1030 IST, and for reverse repo between 1900 IST and 1930 IST.

MARKETS 

Call  : May open slightly above repo rate as most banks likely to cover reserve needs early in session. 1-day call: 8.00-8.35% vs 7.00% 2-day Saturday.

Bonds : Oil price, US yield may lend cues Mon. Buying ahead of CPI data release to support. 10-yr bond yield:7.83-7.88% vs 7.84% Friday.

Rupee : May open steady to a tad down weighed by strong US jobs data. Range: 62.0000-62.6000/$1 vs 62.3250/$1 Friday.

Stocks : Market to take cue from Oct-Dec earnings. Nifty range: 8151-8380. Friday end: 8284.50, up 49.90 points.

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RBI COUNTER

* DAILY LAF TENDERS: One set of 3-day reverse repo (at 7.00%) and 3-day repo (at 8.00%). Bids for repo tender may be submitted between 0930 IST and 1030 IST, and reverse repo between 1900 IST and 1930 IST.

* TERM REPO: One set of 14-day variable rate term repo for 185 bln rupees. Bids may be submitted between 1100 and 1130 IST.

* GILT AUCTIONS: RBI to auction 20 bln rupees of 8.08%, 2022 bond, 60 bln rupees of 8.40%, 2024 bond, 30 bln rupees of 9.20%, 2030 bond, and 30 bln rupees of 8.30%, 2040 bond.

MARKETS

Call  : May open 20-30 bps above repo rate on demand from banks to meet weekend reserve needs. 3-day call: 7.60-8.40% vs 8.05% 1-day Thu.

Bonds : Seen steady ahead of gilt auction. Players may build positions ahead of CPI later in session. 10-yr bond yield: 7.84-7.88% vs 7.86% Thu.

Rupee : To open steady on expected dollar sales by foreign banks for companies. Range: 62.2000-62.7500/$1 vs 62.6700/$1 Thursday.

Stocks: Seen opening up tracking firm global equities. Infosys earnings eyed. Nifty range: 8200-8350, Thursday-end: 8234.60, up 132.50 points.

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RBI COUNTER

* DAILY LAF TENDERS: One set of 1-day reverse repo (at 7.00%) and 1-day repo (at 8.00%). Bids for repo tender may be submitted between 0930 IST and 1030 IST, and reverse repo between 1900 IST and 1930 IST.

MARKETS

Call  : May open 10-15 bps above repo rate on demand from banks to meet reserve needs. 1-day call: 8.10-8.15% vs 8.00-8.05% Wednesday.

Bonds : May track oil rates, US yields. FOMC meet minutes may weigh. 10-year bond yield: 7.84-7.90% vs 7.86% Wednesday.

Rupee : To open steady to marginally higher on expected dollar sales by foreign banks for FIIs. Range: 63.000-63.3500/$1 vs 63.1700/$1 Wednesday.

Stocks: Seen opening up on firm cues from global equities. Nifty range: 8060-8250, Wednesday-end: 8102.10, down 25.25 points.

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RBI COUNTER
* DAILY LAF TENDERS: One set of 1-day reverse repo (at 7.00%) and 1-day repo (at 8.00%). Bids for repo tender may be submitted between 0930 IST and 1030 IST, and reverse repo between 1900 IST and 1930 IST.
* TERM REPO TENDER: One set of 14-day variable rate term repo for 150 bln rupees. Bids for term repo tender may be submitted between 1100 IST and 1130 IST.

MARKETS
Call : May open slightly above repo rate on demand from banks to meet reserve needs. 1-day call: 8.00-8.10% vs 8.95-9.00% Mon.

Bonds : May take opening cues from oil prices, US ylds. Mild value-buying may support. Seen in narrow range. 10-yr bond yld: 7.85-7.90% vs 7.89% Mon.

Rupee : To open dn tracking euro. Dlr rise vs euro may spur bks dlr buys, exporter dlr sales may cap fall. Range: 63.30-63.70/$1 vs 63.41/$1 Mon.

Stocks: Seen opening down tracking sell-off in global equities Nifty range: 8300-8420, Monday-end: 8378.40, down 17.05 points.

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RBI COUNTER
* DAILY LAF TENDERS: One set of 1-day reverse repo (at 7.00%) and 1-day repo (at 8.00%). Bids for repo tender may be submitted between 0930 IST and 1030 IST, and for reverse repo between 1900 IST and 1930 IST.

MARKETS
Call  : Seen opening near RBI's repo rate as banks may rush to cover reserve  needs early in session. 1-day Call 7.95-8.10% vs 4.00% 2-day Sat.
Bonds : May take cues from crude oil price, US yields. 10-year bond yield: 7.85-7.92% vs 7.87% Friday.
Rupee : Seen steady. Asian units, NDF eyed. Dlr inflow in Nostro may hit. Range: 63.1000-63.4000/$1 vs 63.2950/$1 Friday.
Stocks: Seen opening marginally down; trade seen rangebound
Nifty range: 8300-8450, Friday-end: 8395.45, up 111.45 points.

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Market Update

 
RBI COUNTER
* DAILY LAF TENDERS: One set of 3-day reverse repo (at 7.00%) and 3-day repo (at 8.00%). Bids for repo tender may be submitted between 0930 IST and 1030 IST, and reverse repo between 1900 IST and 1930 IST.
 
* TERM REPO TENDER: One set of 14-day variable rate term repo for 155 bln rupees. Bids may be submitted between 1100 and 1130 IST.
 
* GILT AUCTIONS: RBI to auction 30 bln rupees of 8.27%, 2020 bond, 60 bln rupees of 8.60%, 2028 bond, 20 bln rupees of 8.24%, 2033 bond, and 30 bln rupees of 8.17%, 2044 bond.

MARKETS
Call : Seen opening above repo rate on demand from banks to meet weekend reserve needs. 3-day Call. 8.10-8.20% vs 7.20% 1-day Thursday.

Bonds : Seen down as report govt may not meet divest aim hits mood. Players may be cautious before auction. 10-yr bond yield: 7.85-7.92% vs 7.88% Wed.

Rupee : Seen steady to tad down as dollar buying expected to continue. To track Asian units, NDF at open. Range: 63.20-63.60/$1 vs 63.35/$1 Thursday.

Stocks: Seen range bound in the absence of major triggers. Nifty range: 8200-8350, Thursday-end: 8284.00, up 1.30 points.

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