What's Happening, and Where, on May 19

DATA ALERT (From OVERSEAS)

* EUROPEAN UNION CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT for Mar. 1430 IST

* GERMANY BUNDESBANK REPORT for May. 1530 IST

CONFERENCES:

* CORPORATE SPEAK: FICCI President Birla and Vice President Suri to speak on 'Enable India - Suggestions for the Imperative and the Important for the New Government.'

RBI COUNTER

* DAILY LAF TENDERS: One set of 1-day reverse repo (at 7.00%) and 1-day repo (at 8.00%). Bids for repo tender may be submitted between 0930 IST and 1030 IST, and reverse repo between 1900 IST and 1930 IST.

MARKETS

Call  : Seen marginally above RBI repo rate on likely demand for funds from banks. 1-day call: 8.00-8.25% vs 7.25-9.25% two-day call Sat.

Bonds: Seen up on value buying positive sentiment post election result. 10-year yld: 8.78-8.83% vs 8.83% Fri.

Rupee : Seen opening firm as NDA seen forming govt. To track local shares. Range: 58.30-59.00/$1 vs 58.78/$1 Friday.

Stocks: Seen extending gains from Friday on election outcome euphoria. Nifty range 7150-7300; Friday-end 7203.00, up 79.85 points.

MEDIA PICKS

* BJP PM-elect Modi set to get free hand in both govt, party (ToI)

* Jaitley, Rajnath should in Cabinet, feels Sangh (ToI)

* Bihar CM Nitish takes a day to rethink exit (ToI)

* Joint House session for key bills likely (ToI)

* BJP, AAP in no mood for fresh Delhi elections (ToI)

* Stalin offers to quit, backtracks (ToI)

* Plot to assassinate MIM leader Owaisi busted (ToI)

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

* China evacuates 3,000 from Vietnam (ToI)

* Egypt jails over 170 Morsi supporters (AP)

* South Korea to break up coastguard (BBC)

* Four killed in Nigeria Kano blast (BBC)

* Swiss reject world's highest minimum wage (RTR)

* MH370 shot down during US-Thai army drill, says book (The Independent)

BUSINESS AND ECONOMY (INDIA-RELATED)

* CBI to question SEBI chief Sinha in MCX-SX scam (ToI)

* Rangarajan, Montek Singh put in papers (HT)

* Being Human eyes UK, Africa foray by 2015; plans own oline store (HT)

* SKS Trust buys 70% in Outreach Financial Services (BS)

* Jet Airways reworking profitability plan (BS)

* Edelweiss sees Sensex touching 29000 by Dec (PTI)

* RBI's early warning signal suggest 660-bln-rupee NPAs (FE)

* SBI not looking at SPV for capital (FE)

* Kumar Mangalam Birla to buy 16% in Century Textiles (ET)

* Infosys to match rivals in CEO remuneration (ET)

FROM OVERSEAS

* AT&T to buy DirecTV for $48.5 bln (FT)

* AstraZeneca set to reject 'final' Pfizer offer (FT)

* Facebook ready to take on Snapchat (FT)

* Deutsche Bank to raise 6.5 bln pound capital (BBC)

SPORTS

* IPL: Kolkata Knightriders beat Sunrisers Hyderabad (ToI)

* MCA-BCCI row intensifies as IPL final stays in Bengaluru (ToI)

* Bayern Munich beat Borussia Dortmund 2-0 to win German Cup (HT)

* Djokovic wins third Italian Open (BBC)

INDICATORS (previous session)

* NSE provisional net buy/(sale) in bln rupees, May 16: FII 36.35, DII (3.49)

* Institutional net buy/(sale) in bln rupees, May 15: FIIs 11.68

* FII NSE futures net buy/(sale) in bln rupee, May 16: index (8.48), shr (23.79)

* Sensex 24121.74, up 216.14 points; Nifty 7203.00, up 79.85 points

* Crude: $102.02/bbl; Rupee: 58.78/$1; Gold: $1,292.70/ounce; 10-yr yld: 8.8342%

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What's Happening, and Where, on May 15

We expect Indian markets to open on flat to positive note ahead on counting of votes tomorrow in anticipation that NDA led government led by Narendra Modi will come to power and likely to charge India economic growth story. Global cues are not very relevant at the moment as market concentrates on local elections. US Stocks drop with Treasury yields. Europe shares closed mixed as investors eying ECB policy. Asian markets are also mixed. FIIs data yesterday was decent as they bought Rs 1520 crs in cash segment. However, they sold Rs 102 crs in index futures and Rs 1367 crs in stock futures.

Aban Offshore: Shares in Aban Offshore rallied 6.14% to Rs 540.45 after the company said it has called a meeting of its board of directors on May 28 to consider raising funds via securities issue to qualified institutional buyers.

GSFC: Shares of Gujarat State Fertilisers & Chemicals (GSFC) hit 16-month high at Rs 66.40, up 7% on Wednesday. Its March quarter earnings impressed the street with net profit growing 129.5 % at Rs 134 crore year-onyear. Margins were at 13 % while EBITDA was up 104 % on yearly basis. However, 30 % in fertiliser products dented sales growth. 

Nestle: Shares in Nestle India slipped 1.94% % on Wednesday as investors were disappointed about its March quarter earnings. The FMCG major’s net profit declined 7.14 % to Rs 259.16 crore in the first quarter ended March 31. 

DATA ALERT

- JAPAN REVISED RETAIL SALES for Mar. 1000 IST

- JAPAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY for Apr. 1030 IST

- GERMANY 1ST RELEASE OF GDP for quarter ended Mar. 1130 IST

- EUROZONE HARMONISED CONSUMER PRICE INDEX for Apr. 1430 IST

- EUROZONE FLASH ESTIMATE OF GDP for quarter ended Mar. 1430 IST

- US REAL EARNINGS for Apr. 1800 IST

- US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX for Apr. 1800 IST

- US WEEKLY EXPORT SALES. 1800 IST

- US EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING SURVEY for May. 1800 IST

- US UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE CLAIMS DATA for wk ended May 10. 1800 IST

- US TREASURY INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL DATA for Mar. 1830 IST

- US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILISATION for Apr. 1845 IST

- US CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX. 1915 IST

- US NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX for May. 1930 IST

- US RETAIL E-COMMERCE SALES for quarter ended March. 1930 IST

- FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA BUSINESS OUTLOOK for May. 1930 IST

- US EIA NATURAL GAS STORAGE DATA for week ended May 9. 2000 IST

from INDIA

- WPI inflation for April, to be detailed by commerce and industry ministry.

RBI COUNTER

 DAILY LAF TENDERS: One set of 1-day reverse repo (at 7.00%) and 1-day repo

  (at 8.00%). Bids for repo tender may be submitted between 0930 IST and

  1030 IST, and reverse repo between 1900 IST and 1930 IST.

MARKETS

Call  : Seen opening around MSF rate on demand from banks to meet  daily needs. 1-day call: 8.95-9.00% vs 9.00% 2-day Tue.

Bonds : Prices seen slightly up on value buying. Mood cautious  before poll results Fri. 10-yr yld: 8.76-8.82% vs 8.78% Tue.

Rupee : Seen opening up on likely bunched-up inflows, expectations of BJP win. Range: 59.30-59.90/$1 vs 59.66/$1 Tue.

Stocks: To witness further consolidation. Eye earnings, WPI inflation data.  Nifty range 7050-7170; Wed-end 7108.75, unchanged from prev close.

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- What's Happening, and Where, on May 13

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
* US: Gains in internet, small-cap and biotechnology stocks boosted US stock indices Monday, with S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at record highs.
* Key Asian markets: Asian stock indices advanced noting overnight gains in US equities, where S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at record closing highs.

STOCKS
* BALLARPUR INDUSTRIES: Posted Jan-Mar net profit of 154.2 mln rupees, up 22.8% on year. Net sales rose 10.04% on-year to 13.54 bln rupees.
* BANK OF BARODA: The company is eyeing a higher growth in 2014-15 (Apr-Mar).
* FINOLEX INDUSTRIES: Reported net profit of 561.92 mln rupees in Jan-Mar,down 29.2% on-year, and net sales growth of 33.5% to 8.33 bln rupees.
* GLOBAL OFFSHORE: Has denied reports that Indian Star Fund and DVB Bank are in talks to buy 24% stake in the company.
* HDFC BANK: The law ministry has suggested the department of economic affairs and the DIPP, a wing of industry ministry, take a view on the FDI plan in the company.
* INDOCO REMEDIES: The company sees sales of 10 bln rupees in next one and a half year.
* LANCO INFRATECH: Has said the report that the company is looking to cut stake in Australian coal mines is "market speculation".
* LUPIN: The company plans to rejig its domestic business after local growth slowed over several quarters.
* MARUTI SUZUKI: The company is looking at double-digit growth by end of 2014-15 (Apr-Mar).
* NHPC: Has signed an agreement to set up solar power projects for the Kerala State Electricity Board.
* TATA MOTORS: The company's UK-based arm Jaguar Land Rover sold 37,171 vehicles globally in April, up 30% year on year.
* TATA STEEL: The company is planning to raise $1.24 bln overseas through the sale of bonds by one of its Singapore entities.

DATA ALERT
* GERMANY WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX for Apr. 1130 IST
* GERMANY ZEW INDICATOR OF ECONOMIC SENTIMENT for May. 1430 IST
* US NFIB INDEX OF SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM for Apr. 1700 IST
* US ICSC-GOLDMAN SACHS CHAIN STORE SALES for wk ended May 10. 1715 IST
* US FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK'S HOUSEHOLD DEBT, CREDIT REPORT for quarter ended Dec. 1730 IST
* US IMPORT, EXPORT PRICE INDEXES for Apr. 1800 IST
* US ADVANCE SALES FOR RETAIL, FOOD SERVICES for Apr. 1800 IST
* US JOHNSON REDBOOK RETAIL SALES INDEX for week ended May 10. 1825 IST
* US MANUFACTURING, TRADE, INVENTORIES AND SALES for Mar. 1930 IST

RBI COUNTER
* DAILY LAF TENDERS: One set of 2-day reverse repo (at 7.00%) and 2-day repo(at 8.00%). Bids for repo tender may be submitted between 0930 IST and 1030 IST, and reverse repo between 1900 IST and 1930 IST.
* T-BILL AUCTIONS: RBI to hold auctions of 90 bln rupees of 91-day T-bills, and 60 bln rupees of 364-day T-bills.
* Consumer Affairs Joint Secretary Parida and ITC Executive Director Grant to be present at FICCI session on Misleading Advertisements'. 1000 IST, New.

MARKETS
Call  : Seen opening around 8.60% on demand from banks to meet daily funding Needs amid tight liquidity. 2-day call: 8.60% vs 8.90-8.95% 1-day Mon.

Bonds : Seen firmly up on Tuesday as exit polls show big win for BJP-led NDA government. 10-year bond yield: 8.66-8.75% vs 8.72% Mon.

Rupee : Seen up as exit polls suggest NDA majority at Centre. Local share indices to aid rise. Range: 59.25-60.15/$1 Tue vs 60.05/$1 Mon.

Stocks : To touch new highs as exit polls indicate BJP win in elections Nifty range 6950-7200; Monday-end 7014.25, up 155.45 points.

MEDIA PICKS
* Exit polls say "abki baar Modi sarkar"; most see NDA majority.
* Record voter turnout brings down curtain on Lok Sabha polling.
* AAP's Kejriwal says Modi a threat to India's secularism.
* New government must wrestle with weak output, inflation.
* Setback for TRS, YSR Cong in Andhra civic polls.
* CBI forms special probe team into Saradha scam.
* Mukul Sinha, who fought for 2002 riot victims, succumbs to cancer.

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MARKETS MAY BOUNCE FROM SUPPORT OF 6650 ON POSITIVE GLOBAL CUES

                Indian markets are seen opening on a firmer note on better global cues. Wall Street indices ended in the green after US Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen warned in a congressional testimony that the US housing market slowdown poses a fresh risk to growth. The crisis in Ukraine eased after President Vladimir Putin called on pro-Russia groups in eastern Ukraine to postpone a planned referendum on independence. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.7%, S&P 500 advanced 0.6% while Nasdaq Composite was down 0.3%.Back home, and FIIs yesterday bought Rs 119 crs in cash markets which was quite contrary given the fall in the markets. However they continue to be sellers in futures markets as they sold Rs 512 crs & Rs 339 crs in index & stock futures resp. On Wednesday, Sensex declined 184 points (0.8%) to close at 22323 and Nifty fell 1% to close at 6652. There was weakness in the global market and nearness of Union election results pulled down the market.

IRB Infra: Shares in IRB Infrastructure Developers has strengthened by 7.03% to Rs 124 in an otherwise weak market after the company said it has bagged an order worth around Rs 2,300 crore from National Highways Authority of India (NHAI).The company has emerged as a selected bidder and received a letter of award from NHAI for the project of four laning of Kaithal - Rajasthan border section of NH-152/65 from km 33.250 to km 241.580 in the state of Haryana to be executed as BOT (Toll) on design, build, finance, operate and transfer basis pattern under NHDP Phase – IV, IRB Infrastructure said in a statement.

Allahabad Bank: Shares in Allahabad Bank plunged 8.69% to Rs 95.05, the day’s lowest level on the NSE, after the bank said its NPAs, as a percentage of total assets, increased to 5.73% in the March quarter from 5.47% at the end of December quarter.Net NPAs, however, declined in the March quarter to 4.15%, down from 4.19% three months earlier, Allahabad Bank said in a statement.Meanwhile, the state-owned bank has reported a 25% year-on-year jump in net profit at Rs 158 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2014, on the back of higher interest come. The bank had posted a profit of Rs 126 crore in the same quarter last year.

Infosys: Shares in Infosys corrected nearly 3.15% to Rs 3,064.45 after UBS downgraded the stock to 'sell' citing the longer-than-expected turnaround time at the IT outsourcer. The global investment bank lowered its target price on Infosys by 32% to Rs 2,750, saying excessive focus on profit margins in sales-driven business could hurt Infosys' market share, the Bloomberg report suggests.

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MARKETS TO REMAIN CHOPPY IN 6750 ─6650 RANGE.

   
  Indian markets are seen opening on soft to flat note on the back of slightly shaky global cues and cautiousness ahead of elections results in India. FIIs data yesterday was not at all encouraging and could weigh on the markets. FIIs bought only Rs 46 crs in cash markets, which is the lowest in last eleven
sessions. Further, they sold Rs 444 crs in index futures, which is the highest selling in the last six session. They also sold Rs 195 crs in stock futures. On Tuesday, Sensex gained 63 points to close at 22508 and Nifty gained 16 points to close above 6700 mark. Market was lackluster and Sensex has been moving in a narrow band in the last few sessions. Traders keep wait and watch policy till the Union election results outcome. Oil & Gas, Capital Goods and Banking stocks witnessed fresh buying. However, Tech, Power and Realty stocks declined.

MOVERS & SHAKERS
City Union Bank: Shares in City Union Bank ended higher by 6.20% to Rs 61.65 after RB allowed foreign institutional investors to purchase up to 35% of the paid-up capital of the bank.RBI said that it has removed City Union Bank from its banned list, allowing it to raise the FII investment limit up to 35% cent of its paid up capital as the foreign shareholding limit had gone below threshold level.

Atul: Shares in Atul Limited has surged 12.55% to Rs 735.30, extending its previous day’s 19% rally, after reporting an over two-fold jump in standalone net profit at Rs 51.56 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2014, on back of higher sales.

Canara Bank: Shares of Canara Bank fell 5.49% % as its March quarter earnings were disappointing. Its net profit fell 15.8 %(Y-o-Y) to Rs 610.83 while total income of the bank increased to Rs 11,609.72 crore
Its gross NPAs were, however, down 2.49% from 2.57% on a yearly basis. CLSA recommends to sell it for a target of Rs 240 per share.

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MARKETS TO MOVE IN 6740 ─ 6680 RANGE. EYE ON HDFC, TITAN, VIJAYA BANK

     We expect Indian markets to open higher on relatively better global cues. U.S. stocks advanced on Monday, with the Dow industrial coming back from a triple-digit deficit, as an upbeat read of the U.S. services sector countered concern about conflict in Ukraine and growth in China.Asian share markets shuffled higher in early trades after promising U.S. economic news helped Wall Street to a firmer finish, though activity was again light with Tokyo still on holiday. FIIs data yesterday was decent as they had bought Rs 86 crs in index futures suggesting they see very limited downside.On Monday, Sensex gained a marginal 41 points to close at 22445. Market was moving in a narrow band for the most part of the day due to few days being left for Union Election results outcome. There was stock specific action in the market. Banking stocks gained after Canara Bank reported better than expected Q4 result and 10-year G-Sec fell to 2-month low at 8.75%.Oil & Gas, Capital Goods and Metal stocks gained. However Pharma and Tech stocks witnessed profit booking. Both Asian and European markets fell by half to one percent due to disappointing Chinese manufacturing data. Oil & Gas stocks were biggest gainers today.

MOVERS & SHAKERS
Canara Bank : Shares in Canara Bank closed higher by 6.49% to Rs 304.20 after the bank said its net non-performing assets, as a percentage of total assets, declined to 1.98% in March quarter from
2.39% in the previous quarter ended December 2013. The bank’s gross non-performing loans as a percentage of total assets too declined to 2.49% from 2.79% in previous quarter.

Ajanta Pharma : Shares in Ajanta Pharma soared 8.47% to Rs 1,060.45 after reporting over two-fold jump in standalone net profit at Rs 70 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2014, on back of
higher revenues from export. The pharmaceutical company had profit of Rs 27 crore in the same quarter year ago.Revenue from operations grew 32% at Rs 311 crore during the quarter under review against Rs
249 crore in the corresponding quarter of previous fiscal.

Deepak Nitrite : Shares in Deepak Nitrite rallied 5.86% to Rs 563.30 after the company said its board has recommended issuance of bonus shares in the ratio of one bonus share for every one equity share held.The board also approved sub-division of equity share of the company of face value of Rs 10 each into 5 equity shares of face value of Rs 2, Deepak Nitrite said in a statement.Meanwhile, the commodity chemicals maker has reported a 68% year-on-year jump in net profit at Rs 15.86 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2014, on the back of higher operational income.

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MARKETS TO CONSOLIDATE WITHIN 6650 - 6750 BAND.

   We expect Indian markets to open on a flat to positive note but the mood is of caution ahead of election results.US stocks closed marginally lower on Friday. Concerns over the escalating tensions in Ukraine overshadowed a strong payrolls report. Indian market declined last week on profit booking, triggered by the IMD on 24 April 2014, announcing that the country will likely get below-normal levels of monsoon rain this year. Key benchmark indices declined in all four trading sessions in the week.

Bata India: Shares in Bata India dipped 4.23% to Rs 1,023 after reporting a marginal 2.4% year-on-year growth in net profit at Rs 39.40 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2014, due to higher expenditure.

Cera Sanitaryware: Shares were locked at the upper circuit of 20% at Rs 1,147.85, also its new high on the BSE.The stock has rallied 35% in the past five trading sessions from Rs 848 on April 23, after reporting a strong set of numbers for the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2014. The benchmark CNX Nifty has declined 2% during the same period.

Fulford India: Shares in Fulford India was locked in upper circuit for fourth day in a row, up 10% at Rs 1,195 on the BSE, after its promoter Dashtag has made voluntary delisting offer at an indicative price of Rs
1,150.The pharmaceutical stock has rallied 74% in past four trading sessions from Rs 686 on April 25, after the company made announcement after market hours.

COTTON MCX 1 month's cotton finished higher by 0.57% to Rs 21290 on Friday. On weekly basis prices have gained 1.91%. CAI estimates 2013-14 cotton crops at 377 lakh bales against earlier estimates of 374 lakh bales.

SUGAR Sugar futures corrected from higher levels last week on weak demand at higher levels, rising supplies and lack of fresh export demand and settled 1.35% lower w-o-w. Prices gained earlier last week on forecast of below normal rains by the IMD coupled with demand from the bulk consumers.

PRECIOUS METALS Precious metals are higher following gains on Friday on increasing tensions in Ukraine. US NFP data on Friday was much stronger than expected with unemployment falling to more than a 5 year low.

INDUSTRIAL METALS Base metals may trade with a negative bias today after the HSBC PMI data from China pointed to a fourth consecutive month of contraction. The HSBC/Markit PMI for April came in at 48.1, lower than a preliminary reading of 48.3 but up slightly from an eight-month low of 48.0 in March.

ENERGY WTI Crude oil prices are trading steady in early trade but weak Chinese data may weigh on prices. The conflict in Ukraine is escalating with Ukraine trying to dislodge pro-Russian rebels over the weekend from its eastern industrial heartland as violence also spread to Odessa.

MAIZE NCDEX 1 month’s Maize futures closed higher by 0.35% to Rs 1145 on Friday. However, on weekly basis prices had declined by 0.86%.

WHEAT NCDEX 1 month’s wheat futures closed higher by 0.52% to Rs 1553 on Friday. On weekly basis prices gained 0.65%. Earlier on April 17, prices had hit a recent low of 1499.

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