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India's Best Stock Broker: COMMODITIES: CRUDE OIL : Oil futures fell as concerns on Europe's demand for the commodity rose with Greece failing to reach an agreement with its...

COMMODITIES

CRUDE OIL: Oil futures fell as concerns on Europe's demand for the commodity rose with Greece failing to reach an agreement with its European lenders on Thursday. This increased the chances of a potential Greece debt default to the IMF. Concerns over a supply glut emerging in the refined products segment lingered a day after the release of US reports that showed inventories of gasoline to have increased unexpectedly by 680,000 in the week ended Jun 19.
--NYMEX Aug futures (a barrel): $59.70 Thursday vs $60.27 Wednesday

GOLD: Gold futures fell for the fifth straight session on the outlook
that the US dollar will strengthen in the days to come. Upbeat data from the US supported expectations of a hike in US interest
rates in September. Further, market players analysed the Greece debt situation with the cash-strapped country failing to reach an agreement with its lenders on Thursday. Concerns arose that if Greece failed to secure financial aid by midnight Jun 30 then it may default on its debt repayment to the IMF. This pointed at further dollar strengthening.
--COMEX Aug futures (a troy ounce): $1,171.80 Thursday vs $1,172.90 Wednesday.

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Market

Call : Seen opening slightly above RBI's repo rate on likely demand to meet mandatory reserve needs. 1-day Call. 7.60% vs 6.65-6.75% Tue.

Bonds : May track oil, US yields at open. May take cues from new 2023 bond in when issued trade.10-year bond yield: 7.76-7.81% vs 7.77% Tue.

Rupee : Seen steady to tad down. May eye Asian units, euro. Exporters' dollar sales may continue. Range: 62.6500-63.0500/$1 vs 62.85/$1 Tue.

Stocks: Seen falling further on concerns over MAT, passage of land bill Nifty range: 8300-8450, Tuesday-end: 8377.75, down 70.35 points.

CURRENCIES

EUR/USD: The euro was trading lower against the US dollar as market participants grew increasingly risk averse due to Greek debt default concerns. However, the euro derived some support from media reports that said Greece may have reached an agreement with its creditors regarding its debt settlement.

--$1.0728 per euro today vs $1.0737 Tuesday; $1.0738 Monday

USD/JPY: The Japanese yen was trading marginally higher against the US dollar on the back of robust trade data, which showed the economy posted its first trade surplus in three years.

--119.66 yen per $1 today vs 119.68 Tuesday; 119.24 Monday

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CURRENCIES
EUR/USD: The euro recovered marginally after slipping to a fresh 12-year low against the US dollar, as market participants waited for cues from the US Federal Open Market Committee's two-day policy meet that begins Tuesday.
--$1.0525 per euro today vs $1.0500 Friday; $1.0624 Thursday

USD/JPY: The yen was trading with an upward bias against the US dollar ahead of the FOMC's two-day policy meet, where the US central bank is expected to provide more information on the hiking of interest rates.
--121.25 yen per $1 today vs 121.33 Friday; 121.29 Thursday

COMMODITIES
CRUDE OIL: Futures fell sharply Friday, as a monthly report from the International Energy Agency warned that oversupply would continue to push prices downward.  Crude oil prices have been pinned at record lows for several months now as there has been a global supply glut. The global strengthening of the dollar also contributed to the sharp decline in crude futures on Friday.
--NYMEX Apr futures (a barrel): $44.84 Friday vs $47.05 Thursday
 
GOLD: Futures settled marginally higher on Friday, but ended the week registering a 1% loss as the global strengthening of the dollar reduced appetite for the precious metal.
--COMEX Apr futures (a troy ounce): $1,152.40 Friday vs $1,151.90 Thursday

MARKETS
Call : Seen opening tad above RBI repo rate as banks may borrow funds early to meet reserve needs. 1-day call: 7.00-7.50% vs 8.48% 2-day Sat.
Bonds : Crude oil price, US yield may lend cues. Value buying may support prices. 10-yr bond yield: 7.75-7.80% vs 7.80% Fri.
Rupee : Steady to tad up on upbeat trade deficit data. May take cues from euro, NDF, Asian currencies. Range 62.7500-63.1500/$1 vs 62.9650/$1 Fri.
Stocks: Seen weak tracking negative global cues. Nifty range: 8600-8780 Fri-end: 8647.75, down 128.25 points.

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RBI COUNTER

* DAILY LAF TENDERS: One set of 1-day reverse repo (at 6.75%) and 1-day repo (at 7.75%). Bids for repo tender may be submitted between 0930 IST and 1030 IST, and reverse repo between 1900 IST and 1930 IST.

* TERM REPO TENDER: One set of 14-day variable rate term repo for 155 bln rupees. Bids may be submitted between 1100 and 1130 IST.

* STATE DEVELOPMENT LOAN AUCTION: RBI to hold auction of 116.20 bln rupees worth of bonds issued by 13 states--Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Meghalaya, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh.

MARKETS

Call  : Seen opening 10-15 bps above RBI's repo rate on demand from banks to meet reserve needs. 1-day call. 7.85-7.90% vs 7.00-7.20% Mon.

Bonds : May track US Treasury yields, crude oil prices Tue. Mild value buying may support prices: 10-yr bond yield 7.69-7.74% vs 7.72% Monday.

Rupee : Seen steady to tad up on positive India Oct-Dec GDP data. Delhi poll results eyed intraday. Range: 61.9000-62.3000/$1 vs 62.1650 Mon.

Stocks: Seen choppy with negative bias; Delhi poll outcome eyed. Nifty range: 8450-8600, Monday-end: 8526.35, down 134.70 points.

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RBI COUNTER

* DAILY LAF TENDERS: One set of 3-day reverse repo (at 6.75%) and 3-day repo (at 7.75%). Bids for repo tender may be submitted between 0930 IST and 1030 IST, and reverse repo between 1900 IST and 1930 IST.

* TERM REPO TENDER: One set of 14-day variable rate term repo for 195 bln rupees. Bids may be submitted between 1100 and 1130 IST

* GILT AUCTIONS: RBI to auction 20 bln rupees of the 8.27%, 2020 bond, 50 bln rupees of the 8.15%, 2026 bond, 30 bln rupees of the 8.24%, 2033 bond and 30 bln rupees of the 8.17%, 2044 bond.

MARKETS

Call  : Open 20-30 bps above repo rate. Banks to borrow for weekend reserves, indirect tax outflows. 3-day call: 7.95-8.05 vs 8.60-8.70 1-day Thu.

Bonds : May open taking cues from oil prices, US yields. May remain steady, on caution before auction. 10-yr bond yield: 7.68-7.73% vs 7.70% Thu.

Rupee : Seen up as banks may sell dollars on hopes of FII inflows. To eye movement of dollar vs other units. Range: 61.55-61.80/$1 vs 61.73 Thu.

Stocks: Seen down on continued weakness in metal, PSU bank shares Nifty range: 8650-8800, Thursday-end: 8711.70, down 12 points.

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